- Usual forecaster
- David Masson
- Depending on workload, will try to do outlook and soaring foreacast for most XC-able days
THIS IS A TEMPORARY FORMAT FOR NOW
[I MIGHT do an update in the morning if I have time and Larkhill shows anything interesting]
A relatively cool westerly flow as a bit of a ridge as pressure builds from the south. This should give a good day for most of England with good cumulus base 4000ft+ over a big area.
A trigger temp of 15C gives cumulus base 2500ft around 10am. By 11am wind 280/13kts a temp of 16C gives reasonable conditions with good cumulus base 3000-3500ft+.
Early afternoon wind W/14kts with good condition, thermals 3-4kts+ and good cumulus base 3500-4000ft+, tops to 5000ft with some streeting.
Good conditions through the afternoon with wind 290/15kts and good cumulus base 4000-4500ft+, tops to 5500ft.
Soaring begin 10am. XC begin 11am or earlier. Soaring end 6-7pm. Max temp 18-19C, dewpoint 8->7C. Best area south of 52.5N and east of 2W. Very best area east of 1W. With a 8 hour+ soaring window it should be good for 400-600km+, possibly a 750 for big wings or if it streets well. For tasks from Lasham I suggest tasks deep into E.Anglia (eg: Great Yarmouth, Lowestoft). We might get away with tasks into Sussex where (with a cool airmass) the sea breeze convergence should stay near the south coast (?!)
I should be at briefing ...
With a strong jet stream in the wrong place, continuing unsettled with more more systems, lows, troughs coming through, but with quite a lot of soaring windows between.
Wed : Wind SW/12-14kts, cumulus base 3500-4000ft+ triggering late morning? probably ending up with shallow/good cumulus base 4000ft+, is damped down some by top cover early afternoon which thickens as the afternoon goes on. Good for 100-300km?
Tue evening for Wed [if I can find time]